By 2015, the internet should account for 23.4% of global ad spending, details Zenith Optimedia in a new forecast. That’s up more than 5% points from last year’s 18%, and comes at the expense of almost all traditional media, none of which are slated to see any growth in share of spending. TV’s share will remain flat, at about 40%, as will cinema’s (at just 0.6%), but newspapers, magazines, radio, and outdoor will see varying levels of declining share. Print, as expected, will be hardest hit: newspapers and magazines are the only media forecast to see a decline in expenditures.
Of note, the researchers predict that TV’s share of spending will peak this year at 40.3%, after rising from 31% in 1980. That’s not to say that TV ad dollars are going away: in fact, TV is projected to contribute $29.6 billion to the global growth in ad spend between 2012 and 2015, or 40% of growth. That’s second only to the internet, which will contribute 59% of the growth in total spending (or $43.9 billion).
Given the internet’s rise and print’s decline, ZenithOptimedia expects that online advertising will overtake newspapers this year, and the combination of newspapers and magazines in 2015. (Print advertising refers only to advertising in printed editions, with advertising on websites, tablet editions and mobile applications falling into the online bucket.)
Meanwhile, the researchers project global ad spending growth to be at 3.9% this year, a more bullish forecast than that put forth by Warc (+3%) earlier this month. That 3.9% growth forecast is down slightly from an earlier forecast of 4.1%, owing mainly to a stronger-than-expected 2012. Ad spend growth is expected to pick back up again in 2014 (5%) and 2015 (5.6%). Ad spend growth rates will trail global GDP growth rates each year, though.
Paid search is predicted to grow by 13% per year to 2015, although display will be the fastest-growing online sub-category, with annual growth of about 20%.
The US was the largest ad market last year, at $161.2 billion, and will remain that way in 2015 ($182.4 billion). Japan, China, and Germany will stay in their respective positions following the US, although China will see the most rapid growth of those 3. By 2015, Brazil will have overtaken the UK to become the 5th-largest advertising market.
Looking at regional blocs, Latin America ought to have the fastest growth in ad spend this year, at 13.2%. Between 2012 and 2015, ad spend in the region should grow by 11.1%, slightly faster than in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (10.6%).
About the Data: All ZenithOptimedia figures are in USD and were calculated using currency conversions at 2011 average rates.