Warc has downgraded [pdf] an earlier ad spend forecast, believing that global expenditures will now increase by 3.4% as opposed to an initial assessment of 4% growth made in January. The “Consensus Ad Forecast” is based on ad spend projections across 13 major markets gathered from a number of researchers, and this latest revision is particularly more pessimistic about the prospects of cinema and print. Specifically, cinema ad spend is now slated for just 1.6% growth, down 2.2% points from January, and from 6% growth predicted in August last year.
The forecast for magazines has been downgraded by 1.8% points to -4.3%, while print is projected to fall now by 4.6%, compared to a 2.7% decline in the January forecast.
TV (-0.7% points to 2.5%) and radio (-0.6% points to 1.4%) have also seen their outlooks worsen, while only online advertising (+0.1% points to 13.9%) and out-of-home (+0.2% points to 3.1%) escaped the downgrades.
Overall, Warc expects global ad spending to grow by 3.4% this year before picking up steam and increase by 5.4% next year. Russia (-0.2% points to 12.1%), China (-1.2% points to 9.7%), India (-0.1% points to 8.4%), and Brazil (-1.7% points to 8.1%) are projected to have the fastest growth rates this year. The US, the world’s largest ad market, is expected to see modest growth of 1.8%, representing a downward revision of 0.4% points from January.